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Iran nuclear deal: Dead or just dying?

伊朗核協議:這份協議已死或者正在走向死亡嗎?



In invoking the dispute mechanism for the Iran nuclear agreement or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) - in other words, in deciding to hold Tehran to account for its breaches of the deal - the UK, France and Germany insist that they are still firmly behind the deal.

英國、法國和德國堅定表示:三國會繼續留在協議的框架中。三國為此援引《關于伊朗核計劃的全面協議》的爭端解決機制,也就是為了讓伊朗解釋它違背核協議的原因。

"Our hope is to bring Iran back into full compliance with its commitments under the JCPOA," their joint statement reads.

三國發表聯合聲明稱:“我們希望讓伊朗重新遵守履行它的在協議中許下的承諾?!?br />


So the JCPOA exists, but in a kind of limbo - abandoned or largely abandoned by its two most important signatories. So what are the Europeans seeking to do ?

所以說,《關于伊朗核計劃的全面協議》現在雖然還存在,但是它已經名存實亡了。因為它已經被兩個最重要的簽約方放棄或者幾乎放棄了。那么不禁要問,歐洲各國打算做些什么呢?

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson sought to sketch out a way forward.

英國首相鮑里斯.約翰遜正打算想出一個解決方案。

Speaking on the BBC on Tuesday morning, he said the UK and other signatories would stick with the agreement until it was changed. He understood why the Trump administration was opposed to the deal.

在周二早晨,他對BBC說:英國和其它協議簽字國會繼續堅持遵守這份協議直到將來有一份新協議來替換它為止。他理解為什么特朗普政府反對這份協議的原因。

But he emphasised that the goal remained "to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. If we are going to get rid of it, we need a replacement," he said. And in an optimistic appeal to the Americans (and perhaps the president''s vanity), he said: "Let''s replace it with the Trump deal."

但是他強調說:“這份協議的目的是為了阻止伊朗擁有核武器。就算我們做好了退出這份協議的打算,我們也必須達成一份新協議來作為替代方案?!彼e極對美國方面喊話說:“讓我們等著用特朗普制定的協議來替換掉眼下的這份協議吧?!保ó斎货U里斯這樣做也可能是為了滿足美國總統的虛榮心而已。)

But is his optimism misplaced? President Trump says he wants a more restrictive agreement with Tehran, but one of his recent tweets suggests that actually he is not much interested in negotiating with the Iranians at all.

但是,鮑里斯的這種樂觀的態度會不會不合時宜呢?特朗普總統說他想要達成一份對伊朗更具有約束力的協議,但是,他最近在推特中表示:他實際上已經對和伊朗人進行協商這件事不那么感興趣了。

The whole context within which this nuclear dispute is unfolding has changed dramatically since US drones killed Iranian Quds Force commander Gen Qasem Soleimani, and the Iranians'' modest retaliation, and then the tragic downing of a passenger airliner by Iran''s air defences that followed.

在美國無人機殺死了伊朗的蘇萊馬尼將軍后,伊朗對美國展開了適度的報復行動,這件事造成了一家民航客機被擊落,于是這份協議的存廢就成了爭端的主題。

The scenes of protest on the streets of the Iranian capital may well have bolstered the Trump view that pressure on the Iranian regime is working. It is very hard to imagine Mr Trump lifting the sanctions now.

在伊朗首都德黑蘭的街頭舉行的抗議示威活動或許讓特朗普增強了對伊朗政權的極限施壓已經奏效的信念?,F在可以想象,特朗普先生是不會輕易終止制裁的。



The deal was intended to constrain Iran''s nuclear effort for a period of time. It was far from perfect. It did not address wider issues. But there was an underlying hope that the regime would perhaps become less disruptive in the region as it received the economic benefits of engagement.

當初簽署這份協議是想要限制伊朗長期以來發展的核項目的規模。這份協議的內容還遠遠不盡如人意。它沒有寫入更加具體的內容。但是簽署這份協議的其中一個目的是希望伊朗政權能夠在地區間扮演一個不那么具有破壞性的角色。與此同時,伊朗也可以從對這份協議的遵守中獲得經濟利益。

Now in invoking the dispute mechanism, the Europeans are taking the first formal step towards writing the JCPOA''s obituary. They insist that they will stand by it for as long as it exists and that they want a better deal - one that the US can support.

現在歐洲國家在援引該協議的爭端解決機制的同時,也在為了之后宣布協議已死邁出自己的第一步。歐洲國家堅持說只要協議還存在,它們就會一直堅持遵守這份協議,但同時它們也說它們想要達成一份更好的協議——一份能夠得到美國支持的協議。

For months, analysts have been arguing that the JCPOA was ailing or on life support. It now may be slowly slipping away.

分析人士們已經爭論了幾個月了,他們在爭論這份協議到底是遇到了執行上的困難,還是已經垂死了?,F在,這份協議看上去或許會慢慢地失去它的效力。